Using the Pachinkogram to introduce and explore Bayes’ theorem

probability undergraduate level

A person has been randomly chosen to be tested for diabetes and tests positive. What is the probability they actually have diabetes? Students use the Pachinkogram visual tool to explore this scenario and investigate what happens when the given probabilities change. Rather than introducing Bayes’ theorem using formulae, this lesson aims to give students an intuitive understanding of the nature and effect of given and resultant probabilities.

Dr Marie Fitch (The University of Auckland)
February 3, 2020

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